Might February be winter's swan song?

Another Groundhog Day has come and gone, and this year Punxsutawney Phil predicted a short winter and a rapidly approaching spring. Of course, Phil’s accuracy rate is 39 percent. Coin flips are theoretically 50/50, and one of the famous almanacs has a 52-percent rating, so take all predictions with a grain of salt.

Feb. 2 has long been an important day to many cultures because it falls midway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox. Over time, the day became Candlemas, which marks the presentation of Jesus at the temple in Jerusalem. Early Christians believed that a sunny Candlemas meant another 40 days of winter. Over time, northern Europeans decided the day could be considered sunny only if badgers could see their own shadows.

When German immigrants settled Pennsylvania, they brought the custom with them and chose the native groundhog as rodent du jour. On a lark, Phil was declared spokeshog in 1887 by a local newspaper.

Around here, 40 more days of winter would be awfully short. Last winter went five months and the one before that was one week shy of lasting six months. The way January rolled, one might think a quick end to winter is ahead. That month had a departure from normal mean temperature of plus 5.9 degrees.

Some long-range forecasters think it will be about a degree colder than normal around here this February. Snow totals should be near normal. The month’s forecast calls for a cold and snowy period through Feb. 7; flurry-filled but mild through the 15th; normal temperatures through the 19th, and probably more snow too; and the remainder of the month should be cold and dry.

In our part of the world, getting a groundhog to wake up from hibernation for a weather forecast is awfully hard. That’s why the Lake Superior Zoo in Duluth always substitutes a porcupine. And, I hear the folks around Lake Nichols by Canyon, northwest of Duluth, turn to a muskrat, which also predicted a rapid end to winter.

The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has some insight on why a muskrat might want to see the frozen winter end.

“Unlike the beaver, the muskrat does not store food for the winter. It needs to eat fresh plants each day, and sometimes it makes channels in the mud to get from its house to reach food under the ice. To stay warm in winter, groups of muskrats huddle together in their lodges.”