On The Mark: Reports provide snapshot of local economy

Northeastern Minnesota failed to match the state’s population growth rate (6.3 percent) from 2010 to 2019. The Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED), using estimates from the U.S. Census, found that the seven northeastern counties’ population declined by 0.6 percent, down 1,935 residents. Cook County accounted for the fastest population growth rate at 5.5 percent, still below the statewide average. Carlton County was the other net gainer in the region, posting a growth rate of 1.4 percent, adding 485 residents. We’ll know more when the full 2020 Census results are released.

Of interest is the Census finding that the region’s population losses were largely attributable to more deaths than births (minus 2,911 people). Net out-migration also contributed to the region’s contraction: 397 more people moved out of the region than in. These losses would have been greater without the gain of 1,684 new foreign-born residents over the period. Most of our region’s immigrants came from Canada, Latin America, Asia, and Europe, though those coming from Africa or Oceania increased more rapidly. Both groups more than doubled since 2010.

The region’s population is on average older (22 percent over age 65) than statewide (16.3 percent), with a lower share of people in the 25- to 54-year-old age group and a smaller percent of school-aged children. Our many postsecondary institutions account for higher percentages of people ages 15 to 24. People over the age of 55 account for the fastest growing cohort.

The northeast region hosts fewer residents with less than a high school education than statewide, and larger shares of over-18 adults with high school degrees and some college. Some 24 percent of northeastern Minnesota’s adult population have earned bachelor’s and advanced degrees compared with 32 percent statewide.

One striking pattern reflects our region’s labor force fluctuations given the ups and downs of the national economy over the past 20 years. Minnesota’s labor force (those working or unemployed and looking for work) barely declined during the 2007-2010 recession caused by the financial crisis. But in northeast Minnesota, our tough stretch spanned the years 2002 to 2006, after which our labor force grew quite markedly, adding almost 4,000 jobs between 2006 and 2009. I’m curious why. Since 2009, our region suffered the greatest decline over the subsequent recovery period.

One feature that stands out for me is the failure of our region’s labor force to expand in the 21st century. DEED notes an increasingly tight labor market and a growing scarcity of workers as our region’s greatest challenges. DEED’s analysis concludes: “A more diverse workforce in terms of age, gender, race, ethnicity, disability status, and immigration has been and will continue to be a vital source of the workers that employers need to succeed. As the white, native-born workforce continues to age, younger workers of different races or from different countries will comprise the fastest growing segment of the labor force in northeast Minnesota.”

DEED’s data show considerable growth in the region’s workforce for the period 2018-19, a hopeful sign.

Among the seven counties in the northeastern region, Carlton County is the third-largest employment center, with St. Louis and Itasca counties leading the pack.

Job gains and losses have been markedly different across the seven countries. From 2014 to 2019, Carlton County lost an estimated 489 jobs, a 3.6-percent decline, more than any of the other counties in the region except Koochiching. We have likely also lost jobs since these data were collected and published, though the Covid years have been a rollercoaster.

Agriculture accounts for a smaller share of establishments and incomes in northeastern Minnesota compared with the rest of the state. Carlton County, with 529 farms, generated almost $11 million in farm receipts in 2017, the last year with data.

While all this is perhaps too much to digest, it provides fascinating windows into how we’re doing as an economy embedded within a larger region. We’ll know more when the official Census data are released in the future months.

For more data points and insights, see mn.gov/deed/data/ or contact [email protected].

Columnist Ann Markusen is an economist and professor emerita at University of Minnesota. She lives in Red Clover Township north of Cromwell.